CONGO: KABILA SENTENCED TO DEATH

A military court in the Democratic Republic of Congo (hereinafter: DRC) has sentenced former President Joseph Kabila to death in a trial that has captured the attention of the international community. The conviction, delivered in absentia, relates to the 2016 killing of a prominent human rights activist, Floribert Chebeya, and his driver, Fidèle Bazana. Death sentences of a former head of state do not occur very often, but usually have some degree of significance for future political developments within a nation.

Judicial Proceedings And Verdict

On 29 September 2025, a military court in Kinshasa delivered its verdict after a trial that re-examined one of the most high-profile murder cases in the recent history of the Congo. The court found Joseph Kabila, who governed the DRC from 2001 to 2019, culpable on charges including terrorism, criminal conspiracy and the assassination of Floribert Chebeya, the director of the human rights organisation "Voice of the Voiceless", and his driver, Fidèle Bazana.

The prosecution's case rested on evidence and testimonies suggesting that the two men were murdered after being summoned to a meeting at the police headquarters in Kinshasa. Alongside Kabila, several senior security officials from his administration were convicted, including General John Numbi, who is alleged to have orchestrated the killings. While the death penalty is legal in the DRC, the state has maintained a moratorium on executions since 2003, meaning the sentences are likely to be commuted to life imprisonment. As Kabila resides outside the DRC, the sentence was delivered in absentia, making its immediate enforcement improbable.

Political And Societal Reactions In The Congo

The court's decision has precipitated divergent reactions within the society and political establishment of the Congo. Civil society organisations and human rights advocates have largely characterised the verdict as a significant, albeit symbolic, victory against impunity. For years, these groups have campaigned for accountability for crimes committed under Kabila's government. They view the ruling as a potential deterrent against future abuses of power by state officials and a crucial step towards justice for the victims' families.

Conversely, the political coalition aligned with Joseph Kabila, the Common Front for Congo (Front Commun pour le Congo), has condemned the trial as a politically motivated manoeuvre by the current government of President Félix Tshisekedi. They argue the legal proceedings lacked impartiality and were designed to neutralise a formidable political opponent. This narrative of political persecution resonates with Kabila's substantial base of support, particularly in the eastern provinces, introducing the potential for political mobilisation and social unrest. This division highlights the deep-seated polarisation within the political landscape of the Congo, a factor that complicates any straightforward path toward national reconciliation.

Outlook

The conviction of Joseph Kabila could have several implications for the Democratic Republic of Congo. The long-term implications of this event can be projected into three distinct, though not mutually exclusive, trajectories for the state's political future.

First, the Institutional Consolidation Scenario. This trajectory posits that the verdict could serve as a catalyst for strengthening the rule of law and judicial independence. By successfully prosecuting a former President, the Tshisekedi government could signal a definitive break with an era of impunity. This may enhance public trust in state institutions, attract greater international support for governance reforms and create a political environment more conducive to investment and economic development. In this scenario, the verdict becomes a foundational moment for a more accountable and transparent political culture in the Congo.

Second, the Political Fragmentation Scenario. A contrasting possibility is that the conviction could deepen political divisions and trigger a period of sustained instability. Joseph Kabila remains an influential figure with significant political and financial resources. His supporters could interpret the verdict not as an act of justice but as a declaration of political war. This could lead to organised opposition, protests and a potential breakdown of the fragile political consensus required to govern the vast and complex nation. The risk is a fragmentation of the political elite, which could paralyse the legislative process and divert the government's attention from pressing socio-economic and security challenges.

Third, the Symbolic Justice Scenario. In this trajectory, the verdict's impact remains largely symbolic. Given that Kabila was tried in absentia and is unlikely to be extradited, the sentence may never be enforced. The legal victory would provide a sense of closure for the victims' families and the human rights community, but it would have limited practical effect on the distribution of power within the Congo. Kabila could continue to exert influence from abroad, and the fundamental structures of patronage and corruption that characterised his time in office might persist. This would represent a missed opportunity for profound institutional reform, with justice being seen but not fully enacted.