EL FASHER FALLS: CRISIS ESCALATES IN SUDAN AMID ATROCITY REPORTS

The Republic of Sudan is experiencing a significant escalation in its internal conflict following the loss of the critical city of El Fasher, located in the North Darfur state, to the Rapid Support Forces (hereinafter: RSF). This territorial shift, which occurred in the final week of October 2025, has been accompanied by a severe deterioration in the humanitarian situation. The World Health Organisation (hereinafter: WHO) reported the targeting of the last remaining partially functional hospital in the area, while credible reports of civilian atrocities and mass displacement have emerged, underscoring the severe human cost of the renewed fighting in Sudan.

Military And Territorial Shift In Darfur

The shift in military control and subsequent humanitarian crisis in El Fasher, North Darfur, involves the Sudanese Armed Forces (hereinafter: SAF) and the RSF. The conflict, which pits the regular military of Sudan against the paramilitary RSF (formerly under the control of the government), reached a critical inflection point with the seizure of El Fasher.

The city holds immense strategic significance, functioning both as a pivotal military garrison for the SAF and as a key humanitarian distribution hub for the wider Darfur region. The Sudanese Armed Forces officially admitted the loss of the city to the RSF (Al-Monitor). This acknowledgment by the SAF signifies a major territorial gain for the RSF in the western region of Sudan, reinforcing the RSF’s existing control over substantial territories in Darfur. Prior to its capture, El Fasher had been subjected to protracted siege conditions and intense urban fighting for several months, which led to a near-total breakdown of essential public services and local governance structures.

The consolidation of RSF influence over El Fasher and the surrounding territories further complicates any future political negotiations or large-scale military efforts aimed at stabilising Sudan. The military dynamics of the campaign, characterised by prolonged siege warfare and urban combat, underscore the structural difficulty of the conventional SAF in defending key urban centres against the highly mobile and adaptable forces of the RSF.

Humanitarian Collapse And Allegations Of Atrocities

The immediate aftermath of the fighting and the shift in control have produced an acute humanitarian crisis. The World Health Organisation confirmed that the last remaining partially functional hospital in the El Fasher area was directly targeted. This attack rendered the facility non-operational, severely curtailing the institutional capacity of aid agencies to provide emergency medical services to the substantial number of wounded and internally displaced persons. The systematic destruction of critical medical infrastructure in Sudan has immediate, detrimental consequences for the survival rates of conflict victims and severely restricts access to care for the population.

The territorial transition was further accompanied by a rapid, documented mass flight of civilians and disturbing reports of widespread human rights violations. Anadolu Agency documented that more than 1.000 civilians fled the city in a single wave amid the escalating violence as the RSF completed its advance. These internally displaced persons are seeking precarious refuge in less contested areas, placing substantial and unsustainable pressure on limited food, water and shelter resources in the peripheral settlements of Sudan.

Reports compiled by international non-governmental organisations and media outlets indicate that the seizure of El Fasher by the RSF was immediately followed by atrocities against the non-combatant population. DW reported specific allegations of executions, detailing incidents where individuals were killed following the RSF’s capture of the city. Al-Monitor corroborated that multiple reports of atrocities, including executions and other severe violations, have emerged from the city. These reports, which detail actions against the non-combatant population, signify a severe deterioration of the security environment and the rule of law in Sudan, adding a complex and pressing layer of accountability to the ongoing conflict. The alleged targeting of civilians and essential public infrastructure underscores the severity of the institutional collapse in the affected regions and raises serious concerns regarding the safety of the millions remaining in Darfur.

Concluding Forecast/Outlook

The loss of El Fasher and the reported humanitarian consequences shift the power balance in the ongoing civil war in Sudan. As the RSF signals that it can capture cities while the SAF still holds the majority of power, the resolution of the conflict becomes less likely. Wars always emerge and continue in one of the three following situations: 1. the power discrepancy between actors is so big that the stronger side is confident that it will win and it attacks, 2. the power discrepancy between actors is so big that the weaker side has no other chance to survive than to attack, 3. the power discrepancy between actors is so little that both actors think they have the upper hand while being almost identical.

Here, the RSF has shown that it has significant power, and it will likely seek to capture more territory. On the other hand, the SAF will be compelled to focus its resources on defending the remaining key strongholds and challenging the RSF’s supply lines, while the RSF will attempt to translate its military gains into institutional legitimacy, further fragmenting the state’s central authority.

Since a quick and major shift in the power dynamics is unlikely to emerge soon, it is imperative for the international community to mediate between the two sides and establish effective mechanisms for humanitarian access and accountability for the reported atrocities, a complex undertaking given the current breakdown of state sovereignty in the affected territories. Failure to secure an immediate, verifiable humanitarian corridor will intensify the crisis, placing the lives of millions of internally displaced persons in severe jeopardy and potentially regionalising the conflict across the borders of Sudan.