GLOBAL ELECTIONS: DIVERGENT PATHS IN AFRICA AND EUROPE

The month of October 2025 has been marked by a series of global elections and political milestones that underscore sharply contrasting trends in state stability and political continuity across Africa and Europe. While the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire concluded a presidential vote characterised by a generally calm atmosphere, the Republic of Cameroon experienced significant civil unrest and disputed results following its own poll. Concurrently, European states, the Republic of Kosovo and the Netherlands both entered periods of political uncertainty, increasing the likelihood of new elections due to institutional fragmentation. These events demonstrate the contemporary challenges states face regarding democratic consolidation, policy priorities, and managing complex electoral outcomes.

Côte D’Ivoire: Calm Vote Concludes Presidential Election

The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire held its presidential election on 25 October 2025, a process marked by a relatively calm voting day. The incumbent President, Alassane Ouattara, sought a fourth term in office. The election concluded with low overall voter turnout in some areas, particularly in those considered opposition strongholds (Radio France Internationale).

The Independent Electoral Commission noted that initial assessments put overall turnout at approximately 50%, a figure similar to the previous 2020 election. The generally calm environment of this segment of the global elections positioned the state for continued political leadership pending the final announcement of results. The incumbent President has overseen substantial economic growth since 2011, which forms the backdrop to his political campaign for a continued tenure. The situation in Côte d'Ivoire stands in contrast to the violence experienced in the 2020 and, more so, 2010 elections, where 85 and 3000 people died respectively. This underlines the positive effects of the government of Ouattara, which has held office since 2011.

Cameroon: Contested Results And Civil Unrest

The relative calm observed in Côte d’Ivoire contrasted with the volatile security situation in the Republic of Cameroon, which experienced severe civil unrest following its own presidential poll held earlier in the month. The election results have been heavily disputed by opposition elements, leading to public protests across several cities. According to Al Jazeera, the unrest resulted in reports that four people were killed during protests ahead of the final announcement of the results, as claimed by opposition sources.

The post-election environment has been defined by the security response to the demonstrations, with reports of civil unrest and multiple arrests by security forces. The validity of the election results is being challenged by opposition parties who cite accusations of electoral manipulation. The intense scrutiny and security environment surrounding the vote have placed the final determination of the election with the state’s Constitutional Council, which must adjudicate the contested mandate amidst ongoing civil tension. The presence of violence and civil unrest illustrates a significant challenge to institutional stability in this part of Africa.

Kosovo: Institutional Failure Compels New Elections

The requirement for new elections arising from the contested mandate in Cameroon is mirrored by the institutional failure in the Republic of Kosovo, where a legislative impasse has necessitated the high probability of a new snap vote. On 26 October 2025, the Assembly of Kosovo failed to approve the proposed cabinet put forward by Prime Minister-designate Albin Kurti. According to Anadolu Agency, the proposed government received 56 votes in favour and 52 against, falling five votes short of the 61-vote majority required in the 120-seat Assembly.

The legislative defeat marked the first instance since 2001 that a prime minister-designate failed to secure a confidence vote on the initial attempt. This institutional deadlock threatens the timely approval of the state budget for 2026 and risks delaying critical domestic reforms. The inability to form a stable government following the fragmented results of the February elections now compels the President to either nominate another candidate or officially call for new global elections. The requirement for a new poll highlights the political difficulties inherent in managing a highly fragmented legislative body.

The Netherlands: Policy Dispute Forces Snap Vote

The trend of snap global elections was also evident in Western Europe, where the Netherlands held an early parliamentary vote on 24 October 2025. The Dutch election was triggered by the collapse of the prior coalition government over fundamental disagreements on immigration policy, marking a significant divergence in policy priorities within the European and neo-European states.

The election was heavily influenced by public concerns over the social and economic impact of migration, a sentiment that provided substantial momentum for far-right parties. The Party for Freedom secured a substantial number of seats (Al Jazeera). The electoral outcome, however, reinforced the political fragmentation in the Netherlands. Since no single party or bloc secured a parliamentary majority, the result sets the stage for a complex and potentially protracted period of coalition negotiations, as several major parties have publicly ruled out formal partnership with the far-right leadership. This situation confirms that, like Kosovo, the Netherlands requires a new political alignment to form a functional government following a breakdown of the previous legislative arrangement.

Concluding Forecast/Outlook

The recent wave of global elections and political crises demonstrates that states are navigating increasingly complex and divergent political paths.

In the Netherlands, the immediate trajectory is protracted political bargaining. The reluctance of mainstream parties to collaborate with the leading far-right bloc suggests that forming a functional coalition government will be a challenging and time-consuming process. The resulting government, once formed, will be under pressure to address the public's concerns regarding immigration while maintaining economic stability.

In the Balkans, the institutional failure in Kosovo makes a snap election the most probable outcome. This situation risks a prolonged period without a fully functional government, potentially delaying critical domestic reforms and hindering progress toward European Union accession. The imperative for the political parties in Kosovo is to use the next election to secure a clear, workable majority to break the current political deadlock.

In Africa, we see that violence is often a sad reality before, during or after elections. However, Côte d’Ivoire shows that with stability and unity, such violence can end quite quickly. While 3000 people died in its 2010 elections, the number dropped to 85 in 2020, while the most recent election was held calmly. Here, it needs to be noted that fears of violence in the past could have also caused the low turnout.

To find out more about past elections, click here!