PUTIN AND TRUMP PLAN HIGH-STAKES BUDAPEST SUMMIT

The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and the President of the United States of America (hereinafter: USA), Donald Trump, have agreed to hold a bilateral summit in Budapest, Hungary, within approximately two weeks. This high-profile meeting, confirmed by the Russian government, is ostensibly aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine (Anadolu Agency).

The announcement of the Budapest Summit has triggered a complex reaction across the European Union (hereinafter: EU) and the wider European and neo-European states, forcing officials to address intricate legal and diplomatic challenges pertaining to the Russian Federation President’s potential travel. The meeting is scheduled directly before the USA’s President is set to host the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the North American capital.

The Diplomatic Context And European Reservations

Summit Plans And Preceding Calls

The planned Budapest summit follows a reported “very productive” phone conversation between the two leaders on 16 October 2025. According to Reuters, the call took place ahead of President Zelenskyy’s anticipated visit. While the USA’s President framed the meeting as an attempt to “bring this ‘inglorious’ war... to an end,” the reaction from Brussels has been one of cautious observation. Euronews reported that the EU’s official position is one of reserved welcome, contingent on the meeting genuinely contributing to a lasting peace, although numerous experts remain sceptical about its prospects for a meaningful resolution.

Hungary, an EU member state, views hosting the summit as a diplomatic success. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who maintains close ties with both President Putin and Trump, has publicly supported the initiative. Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, confirmed the meeting, indicating that elements of the Hungarian nation view the event as cementing Budapest as an important diplomatic venue (Euronews). This positioning highlights the intricate and sometimes conflicting geopolitical interests within the EU regarding the conflict in Ukraine. We provided our readers with an independent assessment framework that aids the localisation of actors’ stances. For more information, click here.

Logistical And Legal Hurdles Of The Budapest Summit

The International Criminal Court Warrant

The central logistical challenge for the Budapest Summit stems from President Putin’s status under international law. Russia’s President is subject to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (hereinafter: ICC) for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Hungary, as a state party to the ICC, is legally obligated to execute this warrant should President Putin enter its territory. This situation has compelled EU leaders to consider highly unusual accommodations.

According to a report by Politico, officials may be forced to consider granting exemptions to the EU-wide ban on Russian aircraft entering its airspace to facilitate the journey to Budapest. The BBC also noted the complex legal dilemma. Hungary has signalled that it will not execute the warrant, with the government being in the process of formally withdrawing from the ICC. It has been indicated that President Putin will be guaranteed safe passage for the summit, an action that raises profound questions about the adherence of certain EU member states to established international legal frameworks.

The Ukrainian Pre-Summit Pressure

The announcement of the Budapest Summit provides the backdrop to President Zelenskyy’s planned meeting with President Trump. The Ukrainian President is seeking a commitment for the transfer of advanced military assets. News24 reported that President Zelenskyy is specifically pushing for the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles, arguing that the long-range capability of these missiles would provide the necessary leverage to pressure Russia into genuine peace negotiations.

President Trump has publicly acknowledged this request but has concurrently expressed concerns about the implications of depleting the USA’s own military stockpiles. The missile request thus represents a highly significant diplomatic element that precedes the Budapest Summit, placing immediate military aid at the centre of the broader political discussions.

Concluding Forecast/Outlook

The planned Budapest Summit might initiate a more productive phase in the ongoing Ukraine war. Although the USA are participating in this war voluntarily, they have had a significant impact by supporting Ukraine financially and diplomatically. Hence, if the USA change their foreign policy strategy, the Ukraine war might come to an end with the USA withholding financial aid and pressuring Ukraine to agree to peace terms.

Since Russia has demonstrated that it controls the situation in the war, peace terms, if they are already negotiated in Budapest, will likely be dominated by Russian interests. This is also why Ukraine-friendly and anti-Russian European nations react pessimistically and sceptically. Although they want peace in Ukraine in theory, the reality of a peace treaty will not be in line with their ideologies.

Additionally, the EU and most of its member states already took a considerable reputation hit as the leaders of Russia and the USA completely ignored the other major cities of Europe and decided to meet in Budapest. Hungary has been critical of EU policies on Ukraine, but now hosts potential peace talks - something the EU was not able to do. Therefore, the Budapest Summit will also alter the EU's position in the world.