TÜRKIYE INFLATION RATE AT 33,3% IN SEPTEMBER

The annual consumer price index in Türkiye rose to 33,29% in September 2025, according to data released by the state's statistical authority. This marks a continuation of high inflation levels despite an extended period of monetary tightening by the nation's central bank. The monthly price increase was recorded at 2,89%, a figure slightly higher than market expectations, presenting an ongoing challenge for economic policymakers.

Official And Independent Inflation Metrics

On 3 October 2025, the Turkish Statistical Institute (hereinafter: TÜİK) published its consumer price index data for September. The official figures showed a year-on-year increase of 33,29% and a month-on-month increase of 2,89%. This annual rate represents a slight decrease from the 33,5% recorded in August 2025, which was noted at the time as a four-year low. Alternative data sources presented higher figures. The Inflation Research Group (hereinafter: ENAG), an independent body of academics, calculated the annual consumer inflation at 44,24% with a monthly increase of 5,56%.

Specific regional data from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (hereinafter: ITO) indicated that the annual inflation rate in Istanbul was 34,40%, with a monthly increase of 3,32%. ITO also reported that the cost of living for a four-person family in the city surpassed 100.000 Turkish Lira in September, illustrating the tangible impact of price pressures on households in Türkiye's largest urban centre.

Economic Policy And Market Reaction

The September Türkiye inflation data is a significant indicator for the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (hereinafter: CBRT). The central bank has engaged in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle over the past year, raising its main policy rate to 50% in an effort to control inflation. The September figure exceeded the median forecast of 33,15% from a poll of economists conducted by Reuters, signalling that inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, remain persistent.

The CBRT has stated its commitment to maintaining a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed. The bank's year-end inflation forecast stands at 38%. The government has supported the disinflation programme, with officials expecting inflation to fall to single digits by 2028.

Analysis Of Sectoral Price Changes

A detailed examination of the TÜİK data reveals significant variations in price increases across different sectors. The highest annual price increase was recorded in the health sector, with a rise of 64,53%. This was followed by restaurants and hotels, which saw a 58,94% increase, and food and non-alcoholic beverages, with a 35,88% rise.

In contrast, the lowest annual price increases were observed in the clothing and footwear sector at 13,06%, the communications sector at 16,32% and the education sector at 17,58%. On a monthly basis, the housing sector saw the largest price increase at 5,79%, largely driven by an increase in natural gas prices, followed by the restaurants and hotels sector at 3,49%.

Outlook

The latest inflation figures from Türkiye present a complex outlook for its economy. The data, arriving slightly above market consensus, will likely reinforce the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s resolve to maintain its current restrictive monetary policy. The persistence of high services inflation suggests that domestic demand remains strong, which may necessitate a prolonged period of high interest rates to cool the economy and anchor inflation expectations effectively. The divergence between official and independent inflation measurements could, however, complicate this process by affecting public confidence and wage-setting behaviours.

In the following weeks, we will publish an extensive analysis on the economic situation in Türkiye and provide feasible policy options for policymakers, businessmen and consumers alike. This analysis builds on our 2020 work on the Turkish economic crisis and adds adapted elements to the policy course outlined in our previous work. Follow our website and subscribe to our newsletter to always stay informed about the latest developments in Türkiye and the world.