USA-SAUDI NUCLEAR DEAL SIGNED AMID ISRAEL CONDITION

USA-Saudi Nuclear Deal Formalised After Decades Of Negotiations

The United States of America (hereinafter: USA) have formally approved a 30-year civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, placing North American firms at the centre of the kingdom's nuclear infrastructure and extending USA's government oversight over its development. The deal, reported to be worth tens of billions of dollars, was first reported by The Wall Street Journal and subsequently confirmed across multiple outlets (Yeni Şafak; TRT World). It represents a significant shift in USA policy on civilian nuclear cooperation with Gulf states, and arrives at a moment of heightened regional tension following recent United States military action against Iran (Essydo prior coverage).

Under the terms of the agreement, North American companies are to take a central role in building and supplying Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear programme over the three-decade period. The North American government's involvement is framed as expanding its oversight of the kingdom's nuclear activities, though the precise safeguard architecture of the deal has drawn scrutiny from nonproliferation specialists and members of the USA's lower parliamentary chamber (The Japan Times).

Proliferation Concerns And The Absence Of Gold-Standard Safeguards

A central point of contention is whether the agreement includes what nonproliferation specialists describe as 'gold standard' provisions; commitments by Saudi Arabia to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. The Financial Times reported that an accord lacking such safeguards would carry proliferation risks, given that enrichment capabilities can, under certain conditions, be redirected towards weapons-grade material (Financial Times).

The Japan Times reported that the policy shift has alarmed nuclear nonproliferation experts and some members of the lower chamber of the parliament, who fear it could allow Saudi Arabia to convert uranium into weapons-grade material. Saudi Arabia has previously stated publicly that it intends to enrich uranium domestically, a position that has complicated earlier rounds of negotiations between the two states over civilian nuclear cooperation (The Japan Times). The USA have not, in publicly available statements cited by the sources in this brief, confirmed whether the finalised text includes binding enrichment restrictions.

Abraham Accords Condition Introduced Within 24 Hours

Less than 24 hours after the agreement was announced, the USA introduced a further condition: that the deal's implementation would depend on Saudi Arabia establishing formal relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords (hereinafter: Accords). The Japan Times described the demand as surprising and noted that it throws a wrench into the deal's implementation (The Japan Times). The Financial Times similarly reported that the USA had stated the nuclear agreement depends on the state of Saudi–Israeli relations (Financial Times).

The Accords, brokered during an earlier period of North American diplomacy, normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Saudi Arabia has consistently declined to join, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insisting that any rapprochement with Israel must be contingent on concrete steps towards establishing a Palestinian state — a condition that has not been met (TRT World; Financial Times).

Saudi Arabia's Position On Palestinian Statehood

Saudi Arabia's stated precondition for joining the Accords, a credible roadmap to Palestinian statehood, has remained consistent across multiple rounds of regional diplomacy. Saudi Arabia has long said it will not sign the Accords without such a roadmap, and the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has insisted any rapprochement with Israel will depend on steps towards establishing a Palestinian state. No such steps have been formally agreed upon between Israel and any mediating party at the time of reporting.

The introduction of the Accords condition by the USA create a structural linkage between two distinct policy tracks: civilian nuclear cooperation and regional diplomatic normalisation. The two tracks carry different timelines, different stakeholders and different domestic political constraints for each party involved. Whether the USA intend the Accords condition as a firm prerequisite or as a negotiating posture has not been clarified in the sources available to this report.

Commercial And Strategic Dimensions Of The Agreement

The commercial scale of the agreement is substantial. Valued at tens of billions of dollars, it is designed to give North American firms a durable foothold in Saudi Arabia's emerging nuclear energy sector over a 30-year horizon. Saudi Arabia has announced ambitions to build multiple civilian nuclear reactors as part of its broader energy diversification strategy, reducing domestic reliance on hydrocarbons for electricity generation. North American firms competing for contracts in this sector face competition from Russian and Chinese state-backed nuclear enterprises, which have been active in securing agreements across the Sub-Anatolia region and beyond.

The USA's framing of the deal as expanding its oversight of Saudi nuclear activities reflects a dual objective: securing commercial advantage for American industry while retaining a degree of influence over the kingdom's nuclear trajectory. Critics, including members of Congress cited by The Japan Times, have questioned whether the oversight provisions are sufficiently robust to prevent the civilian programme from eventually supporting a weapons capability, particularly in the absence of explicit enrichment prohibitions.

Concluding Outlook

The immediate procedural question is whether the lower chamber of the USA's parliament will seek to review or constrain the agreement. Under their Atomic Energy Act, civilian nuclear cooperation agreements, known as 123 Agreements, are subject to parliamentary review. Whether the deal, as approved, meets the statutory requirements for such a review, and whether the lower chamber will exercise its oversight role, remains to be established. Several members of the parliament have already raised concerns about the proliferation implications.

On the diplomatic side, the inserted Accords condition places Saudi Arabia in a position where the nuclear agreement's implementation is formally linked to a separate political process; one that Saudi Arabia has consistently conditioned on Palestinian statehood. With no current framework for Palestinian statehood negotiations in place, the timeline for satisfying that condition is open-ended. The gap between the two parties' stated positions on the Accords means that the nuclear deal faces a significant implementation uncertainty that is not technical but political in nature.

One of the main controversies, however, is that this deal comes in a period in which the USA is engaging in a war with Iran because of the alleged development of nuclear weapons on the Iranian side. This, naturally, raises questions about the trustworthiness and consistency of North American policymaking. While one state is attacked for enriching uranium, the other state is getting support. It follows that it is not the danger and risk of enriching uranium that drives the USA's diplomacy in this realm, but the controllability of who enriches uranium and how. From here, it also follows that the USA wants to assume a patronising role in international politics, effectively functioning as a "license-giver" for other states, which is further stressed by the fact that this permit to Saudi-Arabia is even tied to a diplomatic condition. To learn more about how economic policy is utilised in political terms, click here.